China sets sights on heavy truck electrification in blow to diesel demand
- China targeting EVs to make up 40% of heavy truck sales by 2030
- EVs to make up 20% of heavy truck fleet by 2030
- Trade-in schemes will prioritize EV trucks to boost adoption
China rolled out a push to electrify heavy trucks, a policy that is likely to accelerate a shift away from diesel that is cutting into fuel demand even as it creates new opportunities for domestic truck and electric vehicle battery manufacturers.
By 2030, EVs will make up 40% of new heavy truck sales in China and 20% of the total fleet, or 1.6 MM vehicles, according to a notice on the Ministry of Transport website late on Friday. On some short-haul routes around Beijing, the target is 80%.
The target is the country's first detailed goal for the sector, surpassing Rystad Energy's September forecast that electric heavy trucks would account for 9% of China's fleet by 2030.
In 2025, electric models made up nearly a third of new heavy truck sales, according to data provider CVWorld.cn, having grown rapidly over two years from a niche product thanks to subsidies and expanded charging infrastructure.
The new plan also called for a buildout of supporting power infrastructure, targeting 3,000 charging and battery swap stations by 2030 as part of a "zero-carbon highway" push.
Industry forecasts suggest China could move toward electric trucks at an even faster pace than the targets indicate - similar to how progress in China's renewable rollout sped ahead of government targets. EV giant CATL predicted last year that as many as half of China's heavy truck sales could be electric models by 2028.
To support the rollout, electric trucks will be prioritized in China's trade-in programs, the new plan also said, which offer subsidies for swapping out older trucks. Those trade-in programs helped drive a previous wave of LNG truck purchases in recent years, alongside a drop in prices for the fuel.
Super-charging. A state-backed push to electrify trucking will likely boost domestic truck makers, many of which have already started to export their vehicles, sparking concern from European manufacturers worried about an influx of cheap, high-quality products.
During a state-sponsored tour on Saturday, officials at Beiben Trucks Group in northern China's Inner Mongolia showcased a new dump truck model fitted with a 200 km–250 kn range battery from EV battery producer EVE Energy that can charge in 22 minutes.
Bai Xiaolong, a senior specialist in Beiben's strategy development department, said China is the company's main market given the limited charging infrastructure elsewhere, but it is exporting about a fifth of its trucks.
Southeast Asia is emerging as a bright spot for electric truck demand overseas, Bai said, particularly in mining applications in countries like Indonesia.
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