U.S. waiver set to keep Russian oil exports to India near record high
- Russia's oil sales to India to stay near record in April–May
- India is Russia's second-largest oil buyer after China
- India's Russian arrivals expected at 2.1 MMbpd in late April
- March imports rose to 2.25 MMbpd, the highest on record
Russian oil sales to India are set to remain near record highs in April and May following a new U.S. sanctions waiver, and refiners have already secured much of their supply needs via non-sanctioned entities and vessels, traders said and data showed on Tuesday.
The robust exports to India - the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China and largest importer of its flagship Urals grade - will likely help Moscow replenish state coffers under pressure due to military spending for the war in Ukraine.
India shipped in a record 2.25 MMbpd of oil from Russia in March, nearly double February's volumes, making Russian oil 50% of its imports.
Russian crude arrivals at Indian ports are set to reach 2.1 MMbpd for the week of April 20–27, up from 1.67 MMbpd the previous week, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed.
The mid-April dip in Russian oil supplies was likely caused by export disruptions resulting from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports at the end of March, two sources said.
However, Russian supplies are expected to average more than 2 MMbpd for the full month and will likely remain around that level, or possibly increase, in May, three sources involved in the trade said.
U.S. EXTENDS SANCTIONS WAIVER AMID IRAN WAR DISRUPTIONS. Washington issued a 30-day waiver in mid-March for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products to help stabilize global energy markets roiled by its war with Iran. It renewed the waiver last week.
Despite the sanctions, which are intended to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal with Kyiv, Russian oil deliveries to India have continued via non-sanctioned enterprises in the supply chain, traders and analysts said.
Indian refiners had already been actively purchasing Russian oil in April before the waiver extension was announced and secured most of the volumes for May delivery as early as last week, according to the traders.
Refineries in India were paying premiums of $7 to $9 per barrel of Russian oil to the dated Brent for cargoes delivered in May, similar to what they paid for April imports.
India has recently expanded the pool of Russian insurers eligible to provide marine cover to ships docking at its ports, increasing the number to 11 from eight, according to its Directorate General of Shipping.
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