China curtailing, not banning fuel exports, shipping data shows
- March exports of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel down 20%–33% vs. Feb
- Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia receiving Chinese fuel in April
- Cuts in April deeper than March under tighter scrutiny
- Exports to Hong Kong, exempted from ban, remain robust
China is curtailing refined fuel exports rather than banning them, with countries including Malaysia and Australia receiving supplies even after Beijing extended last month's restriction into April, according to shipping data and traders.
The export cut has been deeper in April than it was in March, according to tanker tracker Vortexa, with shipments of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline to destinations other than Hong Kong totaling 320,000 metric tons in the first two weeks of this month - just a sixth of year-earlier levels.
China, Asia's No. 4 exporter of so-called clean fuels, has long limited fuel exports with quotas. Its export curbs following the commencement of the Iran war came as refiners in Asia and the Middle East cut output due to difficulties securing crude, adding to already tight supplies in fuel markets.
China's April shipments have included 234,000 tons combined to Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia and the Philippines, plus 82,000 tons to South Asia via Singapore, Vortexa data showed.
Meanwhile, refiners maintained high shipment levels to Hong Kong, cashing in on margins that have expanded because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to traders and shipping data.
In mid-March, Beijing ordered a ban on fuel exports to prioritize its domestic supply, sources said at the time. The restrictions, which China has not announced publicly, exclude Hong Kong and Macau, as well as aviation fuel refueling for international flights and bunker sales for shippers on international voyages.
MARCH EXPORTS. China extended its curbs into April to compensate for production cuts at mainly state-owned refiners, sources have said, with exemptions for small volumes to regional buyers that sought help to ease fuel shortages.
While refiners rushed some shipments ahead of the March order, April exports are under tighter scrutiny, traders and analysts said.
Beijing will be "arranging all the shipments" in April except those to Hong Kong, resulting in a steep reduction in exports from March, a fuel trading manager at a state-owned firm told Reuters, declining to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China's Commerce and Foreign ministries and state planner did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In March, exports of the three fuels to markets including Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam and Bangladesh came in at 436,000 barrels per day (bpd), down 20% from 551,000 bpd in February, according to Vortexa.
Kpler data showed non-Hong Kong exports fell by a third to 250,000 bpd in March from 375,000 bpd in February.
Data from trackers does not always align due to possible categorization differences.
"Flows into Malaysia and Vietnam have held close to pre-ban levels, suggesting Beijing is making deliberate allocation decisions rather than applying a blanket restriction," said Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof.
"This is consistent with the Foreign Ministry's stated willingness to work with Southeast Asian neighbors on energy security."
Calculations based on customs data released on Saturday showed March exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel combined - including to Hong Kong - were flat from February but down a quarter from a year earlier to 2.58 million tons, with gasoline tumbling 68% for the month and jet fuel down 13.1%. Diesel held steady.
Customs figures include cargo shipments and sales from bonded storage for jet fuel refueling and marine bunkering.
HONG KONG FLOWS INTACT. Chinese shipments of jet kerosene and diesel to Hong Kong were little changed at up to 166,000 bpd in March, data from LSEG and Vortexa showed.
Refiners that kept Hong Kong flows high captured robust export margins, traders said.
Processing margins for Asian diesel and jet fuel hovered at more than twice and three times pre-conflict levels at around $45 and $56.50 a barrel, respectively, on April 20, after hitting record highs at the end of March.
(1 ton = 7.45 barrels for diesel)
(1 ton = 7.88 barrels for jet fuel)
(1 ton = 8.45 barrels for gasoline)
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