Venezuelan oil exports to China set to drop as U.S. blockade limits cargoes
- Only three shipments passed U.S. blockade since mid-December
- Venezuelan oil in transit to Asia near 43 MMbbl
- Venezuelan oil discharges into China hit record in November
- China made up 75% of Venezuelan oil export in 2025
China's oil imports from Venezuela are expected to slump starting from February as fewer tankers have managed to leave for Caracas' top crude buyer after the U.S. claimed control of the OPEC producer, traders and analysts said.
The number of oil tankers departing Venezuela for China has fallen sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned ships transporting Venezuelan oil, part of its pressure campaign on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that culminated in a U.S. military incursion that captured him.
After Maduro’s capture, Trump claimed the U.S. is in control of the country, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and began urging U.S. companies to begin investing in the Venezuelan oil sector.
However, the U.S. has seized five Venezuela-linked vessels after announcing the blockade, prompting ship owners to u-turn their vessels away or return to the country's waters after loading to avoid the risk of seizure, creating a measure of control on the country's oil flows.
About a dozen loaded tankers left Venezuela with their location transponders switched off amid the U.S. raid on January 3, but most of them have returned to the country after Caracas' interim government negotiated a 50-MMbbl oil supply deal with Washington.
Three of those tankers have continued sailing towards Asia and are expected to arrive in China around late February, said a person involved in shipping the oil.
The tankers are carrying about 3 MMbbl of fuel oil and 2 MMbbl of Merey heavy crude, according to the person, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Since the blockade started in December, 2.9 MMbbl of crude have left Venezuela for Asia on three vessels carrying Merey and other Venezuelan crude, Richard Ro, crude analyst for the Americas at Kpler said in an email. The company also estimates another 2.6 MMbbl of fuel oil passed the blockade.
PDVSA did not reply to requests for comment on the tankers' departures or return.
The 5 MMbbl of fuel oil and crude set to arrive in China is equal to about 166,000 bpd. That is down from the average of 642,000 bpd of crude oil and fuel oil Venezuela exported to China in 2025, or 75% of total average exports of 847,000 bpd last year, according to internal PDVSA documents.
China stockpiles. However, China stocked up on Venezuelan oil late last year while millions of barrels are still in transit, which means Chinese refiners are not in a rush to seek alternative supply.
Kpler estimates some 43 MMbbl of Venezuelan oil are heading East, while tracker Vortexa sees 52 MMbbl.
China received a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in November, according to Vortexa data, which dropped to around 450,000 bpd in December as tanks were full.
Trading houses Trafigura and Vitol have begun marketing Venezuelan oil under the U.S. mandate, targeting Indian refiners and Chinese state major CNPC for March delivery.
Teapots. The drop in supply will likely hit independent Chinese refiners, colloquially known as teapots, that have been the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude. Still, Venezuelan supply accounts for only around 4% of China's total seaborne crude imports.
Some of the teapot buyers have orders in place for cargoes arriving in March and April that left Venezuela before the U.S. blockade, and are awaiting with "great uncertainty" the availability of supplies going forward, said a senior Chinese trader who deals in teapot sales.
For the second quarter, Chinese teapots may be forced to seek alternatives such as Canada's Cold Lake and Access Western Blend, as an expected diversion of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. may push more Canadian supplies towards Asia, traders said.
The teapots typically process Venezuelan oil, mostly Merey and fuel oil, into road-paving bitumen. For the past few years, traders have branded Venezuelan oil into China as Malaysian or Brazilian supplies to circumvent U.S. sanctions.
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