New report identifies methanol-to-jet as a key accelerator of the next wave of sustainable aviation fuel

Methanol-to-jet (MtJ) could become a major contributor to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to a new report Methanol-to-Jet SAF: Policy, Technoeconomic and Commercial Outlook, released by the Methanol Institute (MI). MI worked with a group of experts across the industry to provide the first of its kind comprehensive overview of MtJ, its potential, needed policy incentives and assessment of opportunities and challenges ahead.

As global jet fuel demand is expected to rise by 50% by 2050, aviation faces a widening gap between climate targets and the availability of affordable low-carbon fuels. SAF is essential to closing that gap and existing pathways alone cannot deliver the volumes required. MI’s new report indicates MtJ will help bridge this gap by combining strong emissions performance with scale and cost advantages. MtJ builds on a global methanol value chain producing more than 100 million tons per year, with renewable and low-carbon capacity expanding rapidly.

“The challenge for aviation is no longer proving that SAF works. It’s producing enough of it, fast enough,” said Alexander Döll, CEO of the Methanol Institute. “Methanol-to-Jet offers a realistic pathway to scale because it connects aviation to an existing industrial system that is already global, flexible, and growing. Policy decisions taken in the next few years will determine which SAF pathways reach scale,” Döll added. “Methanol-to-Jet can move forward now, provided that market signals are clear.”

Key findings
• Deep emissions cuts at scale: MtJ produced from renewable methanol can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by 70–90% compared to conventional jet fuel, making it a strong candidate for meeting long-term climate targets.

• Cost advantage over other emerging SAF options: MtJ from renewable sources is among the most cost competitive SAF pathway outperforming Fischer–Tropsch and advanced alcohol-based routes. With supportive policies, integrated MtJ plants could approach cost parity with fossil jet fuel by 2040.

• Commercial use within reach: as early as 2026, MtJ could be used in commercial aircrafts and access policy incentives in major markets. The pathway is advancing through the international standard approval process (ASTM International) required before new fuels can be used in commercial aircraft.

• Projects moving toward investment decisions: As of August 2025, MtJ projects under development represent around 1.8 million tonnes per year of future SAF capacity with over 60 Mt of announced capacity across e-methanol, biomethanol, and low-carbon methanol by 2030. China leads with about half of global projects, followed by Europe and North America.

• Reduced exposure to feedstock constraints: as one of the largest commodities in the world, methanol can be produced through multiple pathways including fossil and renewable resources, with options such as carbon capture and the use of low-carbon or renewable electricity. This make MtJ less vulnerable to the feedstock constraints already affecting some SAF pathways.

• Supportive policy is critical: the report identifies that tax credits, SAF blending mandates and global programs such as CORSIA are essential to give the necessary signals for investor confidence.

• MtJ is complimentary to other SAF with demand for jet fuel projected to rise from ~350 Mt in 2024 to ~500 Mt by 2040–2045.

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