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Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries drive fuel price rise in Tajikistan

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries are partly responsible for a rise in fuel prices in Tajikistan, three sources in the Central Asian country's government said on Friday.

"There is currently a gasoline shortage on the market, which has led to higher prices," said a source in the Tajik government's anti-monopoly service.

The source said that contracted supplies from Russian producers were not arriving, linking it to strikes on Russian refineries that provide for many of Tajikistan's fuel needs. Two other sources agreed.

Monitoring on Friday showed that fuel prices in Tajikistan's capital, Dushanbe, had risen significantly since the beginning of October. The A-95 grade has risen by 3.54%, the AI-92 grade by 3.68%, diesel by 5.58%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 5.81%.

One of the sources said that prices were even higher outside the capital.

A mountainous country of around 10.5 MM people with few hydrocarbon reserves of its own, Tajikistan is economically reliant on Russia, where many of its citizens travel for work.

All five of Central Asia's former Soviet republics, whose economies are tightly linked to Russia's, have been rocked since 2022 by the economic fallout of Moscow's war in Ukraine.

An escalating Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure was estimated to have knocked out up to a fifth of Moscow's refining capacity at one point in recent weeks, causing a ripple effect in Central Asia.

A strike last week on Russia's Orenburg gas plant, which processes gas from Kazakhstan's Karachaganak field, sharply reduced capacity at the plant, one of the world's largest.

Kazakhstan last week froze fuel prices and utility tariffs, blaming fallout from the Ukraine war, while Kyrgyzstan officials on Wednesday warned that fuel prices could increase by up to 15% amid the supply crunch.

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