Russian oil exports will rise after drone strikes shut refineries
Russia plans to increase exports from its western ports to nearly 2 MMbpd in August, about 200,000 bpd more than a previous estimate, after two refineries cut runs following Ukrainian drone attacks, two industry sources said.
The extra oil has the potential to add to downward pressure to the global oil market as supplies are already set to be increased by an output hike agreed on Sunday by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia.
The Ryazan (learn more) and Novokuibyshevsk (learn more) refineries, both operated by Rosneft, halted operations on several crude distillation units following the drone strikes late last Saturday. Repairs will take about a month, the sources said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. Rosneft did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The increase from the previously planned 1.77 MMbpd will require the addition of up to 10 Aframax tankers, which can carry 80,000 tonnes–100,000 tonnes each, to the loading plan, the sources said and calculations showed.
It coincides with pressure from Washington on India, the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne oil and its Urals grade, to curb purchases. Indian state refiners have already cut Russian oil purchases and increased buying of alternative oil grades in recent weeks.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Wednesday to push for a peace deal in Ukraine ahead of a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened new sanctions unless an agreement is reached.
Ryazan processed 262,000 bpd in 2024, accounting for nearly 5% of Russia’s total refining throughput. Novokuibyshevsk processed 115,000 bpd in 2024.
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